Trading and Crypto

3 Bitcoin Scenarios Deciding the Crypto Bull Run This Week

Bitcoin Has 2 DAYS to Save the Crypto Bull Run

Video: Bitcoin Has 2 DAYS to Save the Crypto Bull Run

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· based on the channel EllioTrades

Key takeaways

  • Bitcoin's weekly close is framed as the deciding event for whether the crypto bull run continues or breaks down.
  • The main support zone is the low $100K area; a weekly close below it opens a deeper retracement toward the $90Ks.
  • Reclaiming and holding above $110K–$115K is the condition for a push back toward the prior all-time high.
  • The bearish invalidation sits near $97K, a level traders cite as the last sweep before a multi-month range.
  • Altcoin entries are conditional on BTC holding support, with rotation expected only after Bitcoin stabilises.

Bitcoin is trading into a weekly close that decides whether the crypto bull run continues or rolls over into a deeper correction, and the answer comes down to how BTC closes relative to a narrow band of levels. A weekly close above the $110K–$115K region keeps the uptrend intact and reopens the path toward the prior all-time high, while a close below the low $100K area puts the $97K and $90K zones in play. Traders positioning around that decision can use the Kalshi market linked by EllioTrades to express a view on the outcome rather than guessing direction on spot alone.

What the weekly close actually decides for bitcoin

The weekly close matters because it is the first timeframe that filters out weekend noise and liquidation wicks. Intraday moves in bitcoin are routinely driven by thin liquidity and forced liquidations, so a Friday or Sunday flush to $101K tells you far less than where the candle finishes on Sunday night. A close back inside the prior range after a wick lower is a reclaim; a close below the range is a breakdown.

Three outcomes are worth planning for:

  1. Bullish continuation. BTC closes the week above $110K–$115K and holds that zone as support on a retest. This validates the higher-low structure and keeps the prior all-time high as the next target.
  2. Neutral chop. BTC closes between roughly $100K and $110K. Nothing is confirmed; the market ranges, altcoins bleed against BTC, and the next weekly candle carries the same weight.
  3. Bearish breakdown. BTC closes below the low $100K area. The next demand zones are the $97K sweep level and then the $90K region, and the bull case needs to be rebuilt from scratch.

The practical takeaway is that leverage into the close is a bet on a single candle, not a thesis. Position size should reflect that the outcome is binary on a weekly basis.

The bitcoin levels that matter

Support is the low $100K handle, with $97K as the line that separates a normal retracement from a structural break. That $97K area is where a sweep of stops would be most likely before any meaningful bounce, and it is also the level that, if lost on a weekly close, shifts the conversation to a multi-month range with $90K as the first stop.

Resistance is the $110K–$115K band. Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to convert that zone into support, and each rejection has lowered the highs. A clean weekly close above it, followed by a hold on the retest, is the single clearest signal that the bull run is still alive.

Between those two edges, everything is noise. Traders who try to trade every $2K swing inside the range tend to get chopped out before the move that matters arrives.

Altcoins only work if bitcoin holds

The altcoin plan is conditional, not standalone. Rotation into higher-beta names happens after BTC stabilises, not while it is still searching for a floor. If bitcoin closes the week below support, altcoins typically lose more in percentage terms, and the coins that looked strongest on a daily chart give back those gains within days.

The workable approach is a two-step process: first confirm BTC is holding its support zone on a weekly basis, then look for altcoins that held their own higher lows during the bitcoin drawdown. Names that made lower lows while BTC merely retested support are the ones to avoid. Shorting an altcoin into a bitcoin bounce is the other common mistake — the trade fights the correlation that drives most of the move.

Why sentiment flipped so fast

One retracement was enough to turn a broadly bullish crowd into a bearish one, and that swing is itself information. Retail sentiment moves faster than the weekly chart, which is why the same accounts that called for a breakout now call for a multi-year bear market after a single red candle.

The bearish arguments cluster around a few themes: that market makers are absent on weekends so retail cannot defend bitcoin, that BTC dominance is about to spike and push altcoins to lower lows, and that a short bear market would produce a weak next bull run. Each of those is a hypothesis about liquidity and dominance, not a level. They may turn out to be right, but they are not tradeable until price confirms them at support or resistance.

The mirror-image argument is equally worth noting: some traders would rather dollar-cost average higher into a confirmed bull than buy cheaper into a broken one, because a confirmed uptrend raises the probability of larger gains. Both views accept the same premise — the weekly close is the arbiter.

How to trade the decision instead of predicting it

Reacting to the close beats forecasting it. A simple framework:

  • Write down the two levels — the low $100K support and the $110K–$115K resistance — before the candle closes.
  • Decide in advance what a close below support means for your spot allocation and what a close above resistance means for adding risk.
  • Keep leverage low enough that a wick to $97K does not force you out of a position you still believe in.
  • Do not add altcoin exposure until bitcoin has printed a weekly close that holds its support zone.
  • Treat a sweep of $97K followed by a reclaim as a potential entry, not as confirmation of a bear market.

This is the same logic behind event markets: you define the outcome, price the probability, and let the event resolve. It is also why a single weekly candle can carry more decision weight than a month of intraday charts.

The bottom line on bitcoin

Bitcoin's next move is a function of one weekly candle, not of the loudest opinion on social media. The low $100K area is support, $97K is the invalidation line, and $110K–$115K is the resistance that has to fall for the bull run to be reconfirmed. Altcoin exposure should wait for BTC to hold its zone, and position sizing should assume a wick to $97K is possible. EllioTrades lays out this trading plan in the video breakdown, and traders who want to take a position on the outcome can open a Kalshi account through the link.

Source: Bitcoin Has 2 DAYS to Save the Crypto Bull Run · Markdown version

Questions & answers

Does a short bear market mean the next bull run will be weak?

Not necessarily, but a shallow correction leaves less room for the kind of capitulation that historically starts strong cycles. A brief pullback that holds the low $100K area keeps the uptrend structure intact, which argues for continuation rather than a fresh cycle from lower prices.

Can retail traders really move bitcoin over a weekend?

Weekend liquidity is thin because many market makers and institutional desks are inactive, so price can move on relatively small flows. That cuts both ways: weekend wicks are less reliable signals, which is why the weekly close carries more weight than an intraday flush.

Is shorting an altcoin like NEAR a good idea if bitcoin breaks down?

Shorting an altcoin into a bitcoin breakdown is a crowded trade, and it can reverse violently if BTC sweeps support and reclaims it. The cleaner approach is to wait for confirmation at the weekly close and size the position so a squeeze does not force an exit.

What counts as a buying opportunity if bitcoin drops after a rally?

A buying opportunity needs a defined level, not a feeling. In this framework it is a weekly close that holds the low $100K support zone, or a sweep of $97K followed by a reclaim, with altcoins considered only after BTC has stabilised.